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Michael's Blog

meet-michael-yardneyHi there...
I first started blogging on ideas related to property investment following an invitation from the leading business news website Smart Company & then by Australian Property Investor Magazine. I have established this blog to share my thoughts on how the markets impact on property investment with
readers of Property Update. I keep myself busy working with the award winning team as one of the directors of Metropole Property Investment Strategists.


Michael's recent posts

John McGrath predicts price growth for spring

John McGrath chief executive of McGrath Real Estate predicts the next phase of the property market's growth cycle will kickstart within 60 days.
 
"It's normal for the property sector to experience short periods of high growth followed by shorter periods of market stabilisation in a long-term growth cycle. Real estate markets rarely grow in a straight line," he said.

Read on to find out his predictions for our property markets....

Interest rates will rise again – maybe sooner than expected.

While the RBA did not increase interest rates yesterday, homeowners should be prepared and property investors should factor in rising rates in their property investment plans.

Over the last week a number of economists have come out with forecasts of a strong economy, rising inflation and suggestions that  rates will rise significantly…

Read on to find out how this may affect your property investment plans…

Cities squeezed as we move toward CBD living

The latest regional population figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal an increasing trend toward inner city living, as Gen Y leads the surge of people choosing to move closer to our major CBD’s.

As they leave the sanctuary of their parents’ homes and realise true independence, most Gen Y’s are opting to live closer to employment opportunities, established infrastructure and lifestyle amenities, including public transport, shopping, restaurants and entertainment facilities.

Click here to read on.

Clearance rates rebound, but prices predicted to remain flat

Last week it seemed sellers had a case of spring fever, with a flurry of auction activity as winter came to a close. This week, while stock levels were not as high, all cities apart from Sydney experienced a clearance rate comeback to healthier levels.

According to the latest RP Data Rismark Home Value Index however, Australia’s capital city property values have slowed considerably, with predictions that prices will continue to show minimal change for the remainder of the year.

Read on to find out more…

Interest rates to hit 9% by 2013

The Australian economy will rebound and inflationary pressures will force mortgage interest rates above 9% within three years according to the BIS Shrapnel’s Long Term Forecasts, 2010 – 2025 report.

While this will bring the current property cycle to a halt there are some great opportunities for smart property investors before then.

Read on to find out more…

Bracket creep means one million Australian workers' pay more tax.

MORE than one million Australians will have pay rises eaten up over the next three years because tax cuts are off the agenda for both parties.
 
Workers earning $34,000 a year will see their tax rate double from 15c in the dollar to 30c in the dollar in the next three years as politicians focus on paying off the nation's debt.
 
Workers who earn $73,000 a year, the average total weekly earnings for males in New South Wales, will be pushed from the 30c tax bracket to the 37c tax bracket by 2013.
 
It's called bracket creep and it happens when the tax scales are not indexed to take account of inflationary growth in wages.
 
The age pension and other welfare payments are indexed twice a year but the tax system is not automatically adjusted for inflation or wages growth.
 
A series of tax cuts by governments over the last decade has protected Australians from bracket creep.
 
But on July 1 workers received the last of the scheduled $34 billion tax cuts promised by both major parties at the beginning of the 2007 election.
 
An analysis prepared for The Daily Telegraph using the Melbourne Institute's tax and transfer simulator at the University of Melbourne showed that, without further tax cuts, in two years 735,000 workers would be paying a higher rate of tax as wage rises pushed them into a higher tax bracket.
 
Within three years, the time of the next election, 1.14 million Australians will be in a higher tax bracket.
 
To prevent bracket creep the threshold for the 15c tax bracket would have to rise from $37,000 per year to $41,619 per year by 2013, and the threshold for the 30c-in-the-dollar tax bracket would have to rise from $80,000 per year to $89,989 per year.
 
The Henry Tax review commissioned by former prime minister Kevin Rudd called for a major simplification of the tax system that would see the current $6000 tax free threshold to be lifted to $25,000.
 
Anyone earning over $25,000 would pay a flat tax rate of 35c in the dollar and there would be only one other tax rate of 45c applying to earnings over $180,000.

That sounds like a pretty good idea to me. It’s a pity the government of the day commissioned this tax review and then rejected most of its suggestions

Borrowers face tougher lending test

LENDERS are making it harder for people to borrow for homes by lifting the size of rate rises customers must show they can handle.

This means borrowers wanting to secure funds for a home purchase or a property investment must be able to show the banks that they could handle the loan repayments if interest rates increased further.

Research by Mortgage Choice revealed that in early 2009, when borrowing costs hit 60-year lows, lenders were applying rate-rise stress tests that ranged from 0.75 per cent to 1.5 per cent.
 
It is now 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent – in other words borrowers must be able to demonstrate their budgets could cope with an interest rate rise of 1.5% to 2.5%
 
With this new buffer requirement and an average mortgage of $452,000, a borrower has to show they have as much as $800 a month extra. Obviously this will mean some potential property investors will not be able to borrow as much as they had hoped.
 
And this is evident in the Australian Bureau of Statistics' housing finance figures, which had been declining for the past seven months.
 
It is unlikely that this situation will improve for a number of years as the cost of funds for banks is likely to remains high while all the overseas financial and economic problems slowly work their way out.

Will the property markets rebound in Spring?

Spring is here and homeowners and property investors are waiting with to see what's in store.

Will the property market experience its traditional spring rebound? Will buyer demand keep pace with housing supply? And everyone wants to know what will happen to prices.

At the coalface, the markets are patchy, fragmented and uneven. Some suburbs are still performing well with multiple buyers for every property for sale pushing up prices, while other suburbs are eerily quiet.

Historically, the spring market tends to be the most active time of the year and usually delivers the strongest price growth of any quarter. But this year it’s likely to be different. Prices are unlikely to grow significantly.

With all the mixed messages in the media people are very cautious, and are holding off making major buying decisions.

On the negative side there is the depressive effect of the Reserve Bank's six interest rate rises; worsening housing affordability; wobbles in the financial markets and persistent fears about the fragility of the international economy; the uncertainty caused by the delays in the outcome of the federal election.

And, yet, there is still plenty to be positive about. Australia's economy is among the healthiest in the world. Interest rates, while higher, are still comparatively low. Population growth remains robust and there still aren't enough properties being built to satisfy long-term demand.

The buyers’ agents at Metropole tell me that good properties are still selling well, there are lots of buyers out there for great properties, but secondary properties such as on main roads or in porr locations are struggling to find buyers.

We have turned from a sellers market in the first half of the year into a buyers market now. If you intend to by a new home or property investment, this could be a great time to buy. In the past year or so it didn’t matter if you overpaid because in the rising market your property would have increased in value even before you settled on it.  

Things are very different today. You can’t just buy any property – you need to be selective, do your research and buy well. Buy below intrinsic value in an area that has always had strong capital growth and buy a property to which you can add value

Capital growth or cashflow –which is better?

When it comes to property investment you’ll often hear two somewhat conflicting philosophies being bandied around, so a common question beginning investors ask is – which is better?

Read on to find out my preferred property investment strategy…

Clearance rates start “spring” back after winter lows

Signs of spring are becoming apparent with warmer weather on the horizon. Traditionally for our property markets, this time of year sees an increase in buying and selling activity.

It’s therefore not surprising that Sydney and Adelaide clearance rates picked up this week, even though Melbourne and Brisbane auction results remained fairly sluggish.

Read on to find out more…


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Who is Michael?

Michael Yardney is a best selling author and one of Australia’s  leading experts in the psychology of success and wealth creation through  property. He is Australia's most published property author and has probably  educated more successful property investors than anyone else in Australia. But  he is not a theorist….
Michael is a successful property investor and property developer  and, as a director of Metropole Property  Investment Strategists, his opinions as a property commentator have been quoted in all  major Australian daily newspapers and financial magazines and regularly gives his views on wealth creation and the property markets on the radio. Michael is  also a regular keynote speaker at property conferences in Australia and South  East Asia.
Michael bought his first investment property over 35 years ago, in  his early 20’s, without a deposit and not understanding the rules of the game.  He then went on to build a multi-million dollar investment property portfolio in his spare time. In 1979 he established Metropole Properties that has become Australia’s leading firm of independent property investment strategists with offices in Melbourne, Sydney & Brisbane.